Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Am I a Futurist?

The University of Hawai'i offers an MA in Future Studies and I found that out through synchronicity (our vacation to the US seems to have been one big synchronicity).

Anywho, I've been catching up on the whole Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merril Lynch thing and one of the articles I got was through the artnews listserv. So far the article is interesting but then I was struck by this:

"Back on December 21, 2007, I interviewed Gerald Celente, Editor and Publisher of The Trends Journal based in Rhinebeck, New York. Mr. Celente has been interviewed by network newscasters for years and his trend predictions are generally correct....Are we facing depression greater than the "Great Depression of 1929?" I took that question to Gerald Celente and began by asking him how he was so accurate back in December 2007?"

Now, of course, Mr. Celente is much better at doing this kind of predictive work and I would continue to look to him and his organization for trend forecasting. But I do want to set the record straight about who else saw this economic 9/11 coming: yours truly:

"I'd also like to just say that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession and the real estate market has only just begun to experience the first of several waves of "adjustments" as they called the dotcom bubble bursting.

Expect that the price of a home will decline for the next 5 to 7 years and in about 10 years the next housing boom will start again..."[sic]

That was from my blog posted on November 7, 2007. I also wrote a subprime reader for ACCION USA during that fall, but I can't seem to find a post of it.

Anyways, Celente actually knows how to do this trend forecasting stuff, not me and I simply went reading the economics blogs that made the most compelling arguments with the best data available.

We told you so.

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